Updated

Updated · SportsLine · Jun 23

Martin Green Backs Over 2.5 Goals in Croatia-Panama Match as Croatia Sits Last in Group L

Updated

Updated · SportsLine · Jun 23

Martin Green Backs Over 2.5 Goals in Croatia-Panama Match as Croatia Sits Last in Group L

Q: Why did a proven soccer expert's bold prediction for a high-scoring match between Croatia and Panama fall so completely flat?

It fell flat because the match never became the open, chance-heavy game Martin Green anticipated. Croatia beat Panama only 1-0 in Toronto, well short of the Over 2.5 goals call. Green’s case for a higher-scoring match rested on Panama showing attacking intent and on Croatia taking a more aggressive approach after losing to England. But the game turned into a tight, cautious contest instead. Croatia scored just once, through Ante Budimir in the 54th minute, and could not add the second or third goal the prediction effectively needed. The underlying play also did not support a shootout. Reports from the match described a slow first half, limited clear-cut chances and a cagey rhythm, with both teams struggling for precision in the final third. Panama, despite entering with concerns about its defense, proved more resilient than expected and stayed organized enough to keep Croatia from breaking the game open. At the same time, Panama’s own scoring problems continued. They failed to score for a second straight World Cup match, leaving Croatia’s single goal as the only breakthrough. Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livaković also preserved the clean sheet with key saves when Panama threatened. In short, the prediction missed because the expected attacking x-factor never materialized: Panama defended better than forecast, Croatia were not clinical, and the match produced only one goal instead of the three or more needed.

Q: Croatia survived with a narrow 1-0 win, but does this performance signal an early exit for the 2022 bronze medalist?

Yes — the 1-0 win over Panama keeps Croatia alive, but it also underlines that an early exit is a real danger for the 2022 bronze medalist. The result was essential after Croatia’s 4-2 opening loss to England, yet the performance offered limited reassurance. Croatia beat a Panama side that has now lost both matches and still struggled to put the game away. Instead of the attack-minded response coach Zlatko Dalić had signaled, it became a tight, cagey match, which raises concerns about Croatia’s ability to control games against weaker opposition. The standings make the risk clear. After two matches, Croatia has three points and a minus-1 goal difference, behind England and Ghana, who both sit on four points after their 0-0 draw. That leaves Croatia likely needing a win over Ghana in the final group match to be sure of reaching the Round of 32. A draw could leave them relying on the best third-place route, where their negative goal difference would be a problem. There are still reasons not to write Croatia off. This is an experienced tournament team with Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and a recent history of deep World Cup runs, including the 2018 final and third place in 2022. They also showed attacking quality in spells against England. But based on results and form so far, Croatia looks vulnerable rather than convincing. The Panama win preserved its chances; it did not remove the warning signs.

3 articles · Updated · SportsLine · Jun 23

Martin Green’s featured pick for Tuesday’s Croatia-Panama World Cup match is over 2.5 total goals, with the analyst also backing one side based on what he called enough creativity to win.
FanDuel lists Croatia at -220 on the 90-minute money line, Panama at +600 and the draw at +350 for the 7 p.m. ET Group L game in Toronto.
Both teams enter needing points after opening losses: Croatia fell 4-2 to England and sits bottom of Group L, while Panama lost 1-0 to Ghana and is third.
Green’s betting profile is part of the pitch for the picks: he says he finished his last 26 Champions League selections at 18-8, with nearly $1,000 in profit in 2026.