New Zealand National Party Slips to 29% in Poll, Lowest Since 2021

Q: With major party support collapsing, could smaller parties now decide New Zealand's next government?

Yes. Under New Zealand’s MMP system, the slump in support for National and Labour makes smaller parties more likely than ever to determine who governs after the November election. The latest 1News Verian poll puts Labour on 32% and National on 29%, leaving the two biggest parties on a combined 61% — their lowest combined level since MMP began in 1996. That matters because governments are formed by assembling a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, usually 61 seats or more, and neither major party is close to doing that alone. The same poll shows the balance of power sitting with smaller parties. The Greens are on 13%, New Zealand First on 11%, ACT on 6%, and Te Pāti Māori on 2%, with Te Pāti Māori still potentially crucial because electorate wins can bring seats even below the 5% threshold. On these numbers, a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc could reach about 64 seats, while National-ACT-NZ First would be around 60. That means coalition arithmetic, not just which major party finishes first, may decide the result. Winston Peters’ NZ First is again in a potential kingmaker position, while the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could be decisive on the left. The Opportunity Party, polling near the 5% threshold, could complicate matters further if it enters Parliament. With 14% of voters still undecided and economic pressures dominating public concern, the race remains fluid. But the broad direction is clear: smaller parties now have the leverage to decide New Zealand’s next government.

2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 23

29% support in the latest 1News Verian poll left New Zealand’s governing National Party at its weakest level since 2021, less than five months before the general election.
National fell 1 point from April’s poll, extending pressure on the government even as the main opposition Labour Party also lost ground.
32% support still kept Labour ahead despite a 5-point drop, leaving both major parties weaker in a tightening pre-election landscape.