Updated
Updated · The Texas Tribune · Jun 23
Paxton Edges Talarico 43%-42% in Texas Senate Race as GOP Voters Rally After Runoff
Updated
Updated · The Texas Tribune · Jun 23

Paxton Edges Talarico 43%-42% in Texas Senate Race as GOP Voters Rally After Runoff

3 articles · Updated · The Texas Tribune · Jun 23

Summary

  • A new Texas Politics Project poll put Ken Paxton ahead of James Talarico by 1 point, 43% to 42%, a sharp reversal from April when the same pollster had Talarico leading by 8.
  • The June 5-12 survey of 1,200 registered voters suggests Paxton has largely reunited Republicans after beating John Cornyn, with 84% of GOP voters now backing him — up 21 points from April.
  • Talarico still showed strength with key crossover groups, leading among independents, moderates, women by 6 points and Hispanic voters by 14, though more than a third of independents had no opinion.
  • Paxton led men by 9 points, while Talarico carried voters under 65 and those with at least a two-year college degree, underscoring a closely split electorate heading into a Trump-less turnout test.
  • The poll also showed Republicans running stronger in other statewide contests, with Greg Abbott leading 47%-40% and Dan Patrick ahead 43%-36%.

Insights

Why is the Texas Senate race so close when other statewide contests show significant leads for one party?
What strategies are candidates using to win over crucial undecided voters in a historically non-competitive state?