Kalshi Favors 2 of Mamdani's 3 NYC Picks, Giving Valdez 80% and Lander Near-Certain Odds
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 23
Kalshi Favors 2 of Mamdani's 3 NYC Picks, Giving Valdez 80% and Lander Near-Certain Odds
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 23
Summary
Kalshi traders see Zohran Mamdani passing his first electoral test Tuesday night with a 54% chance that endorsed candidates Claire Valdez and Brad Lander win their Democratic primaries while Darializa Avila Chevalier loses.
Valdez is the strongest of the three on the platform at nearly 80% to win NY-7, while Lander is rated near-certain in NY-10 against incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman.
Chevalier is the weak link in the mayor's slate: traders give incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat roughly two-in-three odds of holding NY-13.
Outside Mamdani's endorsements, Kalshi gives Micah Lasher a 74% edge in the open NY-12 primary, where AI-linked super PACs have spent $19 million for and against Alex Bores.
The races offer an early measure of Mamdani's sway over progressive voters, though prediction-market odds are not a substitute for traditional polling.