Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 23
U.S. June Payrolls Seen Getting 75,000 Leisure Jobs as Wage Growth Holds at 0.3%
Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 23

U.S. June Payrolls Seen Getting 75,000 Leisure Jobs as Wage Growth Holds at 0.3%

2 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 23

Summary

  • 75,000 leisure and hospitality jobs are expected to drive June U.S. payroll gains, extending a World Cup-related boost even as broader hiring stays subdued.
  • 50,000 private jobs outside leisure and hospitality are forecast, matching May’s weak pace, while government payrolls are seen falling 10,000 after local government added 55,000 in May.
  • 4.3% unemployment is expected for a fourth straight month, with analysts seeing the underlying rate easing to 4.27% before rounding as employment slightly outpaces labor-force growth.
  • 0.3% average hourly earnings growth is forecast for June, keeping annual wage growth at 3.5%, while the workweek is seen slipping to 34.2 hours from 34.3.
  • May’s headline payroll gain looked less robust beneath the surface: excluding government, leisure and hospitality, and health care/social assistance, payrolls were unchanged.

Insights

Is the World Cup masking a U.S. job market on the brink of a downturn?
Is America's 'low-hire, low-fire' economy a sign of stability or the calm before a storm?
With conflicting reports, is AI a job killer or a scapegoat for a slowing economy?