TSN Ranks Gavin McKenna No. 1 for 2026 NHL Draft as Toronto Holds No. 1 Pick

Q: Will the Leafs regret picking the NCAA phenom over the pro-tested star from Sweden?

Probably not—if Toronto takes Gavin McKenna at No. 1, it will be a defensible swing on the player most scouts still see as the class’s highest-upside talent. McKenna is not just an NCAA novelty story. He led the Big Ten in scoring as a 17-year-old freshman at Penn State with 51 points in 35 games, after a 129-point WHL season and major international production. TSN’s final ranking put him narrowly ahead of Ivar Stenberg, and NHL Central Scouting had McKenna No. 1 among North American skaters. Craig Button’s view is the key one here: in a very tight race, McKenna still has the “it” factor teams want in a top pick. Toronto GM John Chayka has also publicly praised his skill, creativity and shot release. The case for Stenberg is real. He produced 33 points in 43 SHL games, a rare total for an 18-year-old in Sweden’s top pro league, and he is widely seen as the safer, more complete two-way winger. His résumé suggests a high floor, and if he becomes a top-line NHL player quickly while McKenna stalls physically or remains inconsistent, the Leafs would face scrutiny. But regret usually comes from passing on obvious superior upside. Right now, the evidence does not show that. McKenna’s offensive ceiling is viewed as higher, and scouts say he answered concerns about perimeter play and defensive engagement during the second half of his NCAA season. If Toronto picks McKenna and he develops as projected, the Leafs will have chosen the right risk.

1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jun 23

TSN’s final 2026 NHL Draft ranking put Gavin McKenna narrowly ahead of Sweden’s Ivar Stenberg, calling the race for No. 1 a “photo finish” before Friday’s first round.
Toronto owns the No. 1 overall pick, and McKenna is widely seen as the favorite, though the report says the Maple Leafs have not definitively settled the choice.
McKenna has long been viewed as the top player in the class after starring with the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers and Penn State in the NCAA.
TSN scouting director Craig Button said McKenna still merits No. 1 billing because of the “it” factor teams want in a top pick, even with Stenberg pushing him to the wire.
The close ranking sharpens scrutiny on Toronto’s decision because McKenna and Stenberg are both 5-foot-11 left wingers likely to be measured against each other for years.