Wheeler Mocks Gavin McKenna to Maple Leafs at No. 1 in 2026 NHL Draft

Q: With experts split on the top pick, could the Sharks actually land the better player at number two?

Yes. If Toronto takes Gavin McKenna at No. 1, San Jose could still come away with the player some evaluators believe is the best in the class. Wheeler’s mock has the Sharks taking Ivar Stenberg at No. 2, and the broader reporting supports that as more than a fallback. McKenna is the consensus favorite overall and Wheeler calls Toronto’s pick a “done deal,” but this is not a unanimous draft at the top. McKenna was ranked No. 1 by 11 of 14 experts in one poll, which also means several did not have him first. Stenberg has a serious case. He is the top-ranked international skater by NHL Central Scouting, produced 33 points in 43 SHL games against men, and added 10 points in seven World Juniors games for Sweden’s gold-medal team. Wheeler projects him as a top-line NHL winger with a 91% NHL probability and a William Nylander-style comparable. Some scouts and analysts go further, describing McKenna and Stenberg as a “dead heat” or 1A/1B. Tony Ferrari called Stenberg the “most complete player,” and other evaluations have said he was considered at No. 1 at different points during the season. The appeal is his mix of skill, pace, pro readiness and fewer visible holes in his game. That does not make McKenna the wrong pick. His offensive ceiling remains elite. But if the Sharks land Stenberg at No. 2, it would be entirely credible—not surprising if, in time, he proves to be the better player.

Q: Will draft day see a fairytale reunion for the Ruck twins, or will business trump brotherhood?

A reunion is possible, but the safer bet is that business wins unless a team deliberately uses its extra draft capital to make it happen. The case for a fairytale ending is real. Liam and Markus Ruck were two of the WHL’s most productive players, with Liam posting 104 points and Markus 108, and scouts, coaches and teammates all point to their unusual chemistry. They want to stay together, and Medicine Hat coach Willie Desjardins has argued the second twin becomes more valuable to the team that drafts the first because of that built-in connection. Vancouver stands out as the clearest path. Wheeler’s mock has the Canucks taking Liam Ruck on Day 2, and Vancouver owns picks 24, 33 and 41, enough flexibility to target both brothers without a dramatic trade. Calgary, St. Louis and Washington also have the kind of pick inventory that could support a twin strategy. Still, NHL teams draft for asset value, projection and organizational need, not sentiment. Liam is generally viewed as the slightly stronger prospect, and teams have also been evaluating how each brother projects away from the other. Markus’ health questions, including concern about his back in some reporting, could further complicate any effort to pair them. So the reunion scenario is credible, especially with Vancouver, but it would require a club to prioritize fit and chemistry over a strict best-player-available approach. That makes it a live storyline, not the most likely outcome.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 23

Gavin McKenna is projected to go first overall to Toronto in Scott Wheeler’s final 2026 NHL mock draft, with Wheeler saying recent intel points to the pick being effectively settled.
The top 4 in his final board runs forward-heavy before the first defenseman: San Jose takes Ivar Stenberg at No. 2, Vancouver Caleb Malhotra at No. 3, and Chicago lands Chase Reid at No. 4.
Wheeler’s top 10 also has the Rangers taking Alberts Smits at No. 5, Calgary Carson Carels at No. 6, Seattle Keaton Verhoeff at No. 7 and Winnipeg center Viggo Björck at No. 8.
Ottawa’s new spot at No. 9 after the Brady Tkachuk trade reshapes the board, with Wheeler slotting Ethan Belchetz there and pushing Daxon Rudolph to Nashville at No. 10.
The final mock spans 2 rounds and sketches team-specific contingencies, including trade-back chatter around the Rangers and Hurricanes and a possible first goalie in the 30s with Calgary linked to Tobias Trejbal.