Scientists See 63% Odds of Super El Niño as Pacific Temperatures Top 2C

3 articles · Updated · BBC.com · Jun 23

A 63% chance of Pacific sea-surface temperatures exceeding 2C later this year points to a very strong, or “super,” El Niño after NOAA declared the pattern underway on June 11.
NOAA says the event should first mute the Atlantic hurricane season—forecast at up to 14 named storms and six hurricanes—while boosting storm activity in the Pacific, especially near western Mexico and Hawaii.
Across the US, El Niño typically brings wetter, stormier weather to southern states from autumn, raising both drought relief and flood risk, while the Pacific Northwest and northern tier turn hotter and drier with less snowfall.
Canada usually feels the effects toward year-end, with a milder winter, reduced snowpack and earlier spring melt that can dry soils and heighten wildfire risk the following summer.
Scientists say strong El Niño events are likely to become more frequent as the climate warms; the last super episode in 2015-16 helped drive record global heat and severe regional drought.

Sources

BBC.com3h ago

Scientists Forecast 63% Chance of "Super" El Niño, Pacific Ocean Temperatures to Exceed 2C

BBC.com3h ago

El Niño has begun, scientists say, and could bring record heat

AOL3h ago

Super El Niño growing more likely as forecast models intensify - AOL

4 Sources

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The Developing 2026 Super El Niño: Climate Extremes, Food Crisis, and Global Response

Overview

As of June 2026, the current El Niño event is intensifying, with recent observations and traditional indices pointing toward a stronger event. Experts are closely monitoring its development, and more details about its strength are expected soon. Thanks to advancements in monitoring technologies and a deeper understanding of El Niño patterns, NOAA’s National Weather Service is improving its predictions and public preparedness. The developing El Niño is also expected to impact hurricane activity during the Boreal summer, highlighting the importance of accurate forecasting and timely information for communities and organizations worldwide.

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