Updated
Updated · United States Military Academy West Point · Jun 22
Hormuz Shipping Plunges 81% After US-Israel-Iran Conflict, Crude Outflows Drop 95%
Updated
Updated · United States Military Academy West Point · Jun 22

Hormuz Shipping Plunges 81% After US-Israel-Iran Conflict, Crude Outflows Drop 95%

3 articles · Updated · United States Military Academy West Point · Jun 22

Summary

  • Within 24 hours of the Feb. 28 US and Israeli attacks on Iran, vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell 81% from Feb. 22 levels, showing how quickly commercial traffic froze.
  • Kpler data showed crude tanker movements dropped to four vessels on March 1 from a January daily average of 24, and tanker transits were down about 92% by March 12.
  • WTO tracking underscored the wider shock: outbound crude oil flows through Hormuz fell 95%, LNG 99%, and fertilizer shipments were almost completely halted by early March.
  • The report argues Iran achieved this disruption without naval superiority, using mines, missiles, drones and uncertainty to make insurers, shipowners and crews judge the strait too risky.
  • That points to a broader lesson for US planners: modern warfare can shift from the battlefield into shipping, insurance, cloud infrastructure and munitions supply, where strategic costs may outlast combat.

Insights

If commercial data centers and fertilizer flows are the new frontlines, how can global economies defend against this asymmetric warfare?
Iran's war showed how to cripple a superpower without military victory. Which nation will be the next to copy this playbook?
With US missile stocks depleted until 2030, how can America deter opportunistic adversaries in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere?