Updated · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Jun 19
Young Adult Employment Ratio Falls Since April 2023 as 3.2-Point Graduate Drop Signals Hiring Chill
Updated
Updated · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Jun 19
Young Adult Employment Ratio Falls Since April 2023 as 3.2-Point Graduate Drop Signals Hiring Chill
2 articles · Updated · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Jun 19
Summary
Young adults have seen their employment-to-population ratio fall substantially since April 2023, while the ratio for prime-age workers has shown little change.
April 2023 marked the peak of labor-market tightness, and since then job openings and hiring rates have declined nationally and across most St. Louis Fed Eighth District states even as layoffs stayed historically low.
Recent college graduates have been hit as well: their employment-to-population ratio fell 3.2 percentage points nationally and 7.7 points in Eighth District states, alongside higher unemployment and slightly lower labor-force participation.
The St. Louis Fed says this 'low-hire, low-fire' pattern reflects firms hoarding workers and favoring efficiency over expansion, leaving new entrants with fewer openings and longer job searches.
That makes young workers a potential early warning sign for a broader economic softening, because labor markets can look healthy on low layoffs while becoming less accessible to first-time job seekers.