AJ Dybantsa Commands -550 Odds for No. 1 Pick as 2026 NBA Draft Opens at No. 2

Q: Could the Wizards' 'razor-thin' choice at number one lead to a stunning draft-night upset over the heavy favorite?

Yes. The Wizards’ reported “razor-thin” decision between AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson means a draft-night surprise is very possible, even with Dybantsa a heavy betting favorite at -550. The betting market still points strongly to Dybantsa. He is the clear No. 1 choice in early odds, draws the most handle, and is widely viewed as a clean fit for Washington because of his size, athleticism and upside. Reporting also says the Wizards see him as an especially natural match for their roster-building priorities. But the same reporting makes clear this is not a settled pick. Washington is said to be narrowing its choice between Dybantsa and Peterson by only a slim margin, and several evaluators believe this class has multiple players with No. 1-caliber talent. Peterson, in particular, is viewed as good enough to go first in many other draft years, even if sportsbooks currently slot him more naturally at No. 2. That gap between market certainty and team uncertainty is exactly where upsets happen. Analysts have pointed to the Paolo Banchero draft as the model: a late shift by the team at the top can overturn months of betting assumptions. DraftKings’ Johnny Avello also noted that the real uncertainty starts near the top of this board, even if the odds make No. 1 look straightforward. So while Dybantsa remains the most likely pick, the Wizards’ internal debate appears real enough that Peterson at No. 1 would be surprising, but not shocking.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jun 22

DraftKings installed BYU star AJ Dybantsa as a heavy -550 favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NBA draft, making him the clear early market leader.
BetMGM and DraftKings said Dybantsa has drawn the most bets and handle, but his short price limits sportsbook risk; BetMGM instead flagged Darius Acuff Jr. at 180-1 or 250-1 as its biggest liability.
No. 2 is far less settled: Darryn Peterson is the DraftKings favorite at -225 over Cameron Boozer at +270, though Boozer has attracted enough tickets to become a notable risk there and at No. 3, where he is -250.
Caleb Wilson is the odds-on favorite for No. 4 at -750, while the board widens at No. 5 and No. 6, with Keaton Wagler (+145) and Mikel Brown Jr. (+175) leading those markets.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said bettors are already playing exact top-three combinations, but he expects the real intrigue to start with the Utah Jazz at No. 2 rather than with Dybantsa at the top.