Updated
Updated · ZAWYA · Jun 22
Goldman Sachs Cuts U.S. Recession Risk to 15% From 25% on U.S.-Iran Deal
Updated
Updated · ZAWYA · Jun 22

Goldman Sachs Cuts U.S. Recession Risk to 15% From 25% on U.S.-Iran Deal

2 articles · Updated · ZAWYA · Jun 22

Summary

  • 15% is Goldman Sachs' new 12-month probability for a U.S. recession, down 10 percentage points from its previous 25% estimate.
  • The bank tied the lower risk outlook to an agreement between the United States and Iran, indicating reduced near-term economic threat from that front.
  • The revision signals a more optimistic macro view from a major Wall Street firm, with the U.S.-Iran agreement now feeding directly into recession forecasts.

Insights

With Iran re-entering oil markets, will the price drop be enough to truly halt the threat of a global recession?
Israel opposes the U.S.-Iran deal. Can this fragile agreement survive while regional proxy conflicts continue to rage?
The conflict disrupted everything from food to AI chips. How long until this new peace deal actually fixes global supply chains?