Kalshi, Polymarket Draw Nearly $700 Million on 2028 Election Bets After CFTC Setback
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Jun 22
Kalshi, Polymarket Draw Nearly $700 Million on 2028 Election Bets After CFTC Setback
1 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jun 22
Summary
Nearly $700 million has already been traded on 2028 U.S. presidential election markets run by Kalshi and Polymarket’s international platform, showing how quickly political wagering has expanded.
That surge followed a federal judge’s ruling just weeks before the 2024 election that rejected the CFTC’s effort to block Kalshi from offering election contracts, opening regulated U.S. political betting.
Supporters say the markets provide real-time probability signals and can help businesses and consumers hedge against policy or administration changes; Polymarket called them a foundational forecasting tool.
Critics argue the same markets could damage democracy by letting wealthy bettors wager millions while also trying to influence outcomes through dark money, with Sen. Jeff Merkley calling election betting a corruption risk.
The fight marks a sharp break from years of CFTC resistance to election-focused prediction markets and suggests political contracts are becoming a larger part of U.S. financial speculation.
With insiders already profiting millions, can political betting markets ever be truly fair?
Is betting on elections a modern financial tool or simply old-fashioned gambling in a new disguise?
Are prediction markets the 'wisdom of crowds' or just the wagers of a wealthy and well-informed few?
Prediction Markets Surge Past $5 Billion Monthly: Growth, Regulation, and the Future of Event-Based Trading (2025-2030)
Overview
Between 2025 and 2026, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket experienced explosive growth, with trading volumes reaching record highs and attracting widespread public interest. This surge led some people to leave their jobs to trade full-time, highlighting the markets’ appeal as a new form of financial engagement. However, this rapid expansion brought increased scrutiny from regulators, who are now focused on addressing complex policy challenges to ensure the industry’s long-term success. The future of prediction markets will depend on how well operators and regulators can balance innovation, integrity, and effective oversight in this fast-evolving landscape.