The Athletic Picks 4 Matchday 12 Winners, Backing Argentina and France

Q: An AI and experts are split on Norway vs. Senegal. Whose prediction model for this dark-horse clash will prevail?

It cannot be known yet which model will prevail, because Norway vs. Senegal had not been played at the time of the predictions. What is clear is that the split is real and finely balanced. The Athletic’s human experts and Stanley the Dog went for a draw, arguing that two dark-horse teams with major attacking threats — Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard for Norway, Sadio Mané and Senegal’s Europe-based core — could cancel each other out. Algo, The Athletic’s machine-learning model, sided with Norway, as did Wilfred and guest reader JT, leaning on Norway’s momentum after a 4-1 win over Iraq and the pressure on Senegal after losing 3-1 to France. On form and data, Algo has the stronger recent record. It led the competition after Matchday 11 with 25 correct picks and 63 percent accuracy, ahead of The Athletic experts on 23. That gives the AI model a measurable edge in this contest. Its broader method is also substantial: historic match data, bookmaker odds, player ratings, market values and 100,000 simulations. But the experts’ draw call is hardly a long shot. Outside forecasts cited in the wider coverage also split this way, with some backing a draw and others a narrow Norway win. Elo-style ratings place Norway and Senegal close together, reinforcing the idea that this is the toughest game on the card to call. So, before kickoff, Algo has the better track record, while the experts may have the safer football read: this looks like either a draw or a one-goal Norway win.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 22

Four Matchday 12 predictions from The Athletic back Argentina over Austria, France over Iraq, Norway-Senegal to end in a draw, and Algeria to beat Jordan.
Argentina and France drew unanimous support from the experts, subscriber JT, Wilfred, Stanley the dog and Algo, with Austria labeled a real test and Iraq given near-zero upset chances.
Norway vs Senegal is rated the day’s biggest toss-up with a 5/5 streak risk, splitting the panel as the experts and Stanley call a draw while JT, Wilfred and Algo pick Norway.
Algo still leads the tournament prediction table at 63% accuracy with 25 correct picks, ahead of The Athletic experts on 57% and 23 after Matchday 11.