Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 22
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.221% High as Fed, PCE and Iran Talks Jolt Bonds
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 22

U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.221% High as Fed, PCE and Iran Talks Jolt Bonds

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 22

Summary

  • The 2-year Treasury yield climbed more than 4 basis points to 4.221% on Monday, its highest since early last year, while the 10-year rose to 4.495% and the 30-year to 4.934%.
  • Thursday's May PCE report is the next key test for bonds, with economists expecting core inflation to accelerate from April in the Fed's preferred price gauge.
  • Last week's Fed meeting reinforced the selloff after officials kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% but adopted a more hawkish stance, pulling market expectations for the next hike forward to as soon as September.
  • U.S.-Iran diplomacy added volatility rather than relief: the sides agreed to pursue a deal within 60 days, but Trump's threat of further military action and Iran's renewed Strait of Hormuz closure kept oil and rates unsettled.
  • Brent crude later fell more than 2% to about $78 a barrel and WTI dropped more than 1% to $75, even as bond prices stayed under pressure.

Insights

The Fed now favors a new inflation metric. Could this shift lead to surprise interest rate hikes the market isn't expecting?
A Middle East war is fueling global inflation. Can the Fed's rate hikes cool prices without triggering a major economic downturn?
With the Fed ditching its 'dot plot,' how will investors predict interest rate moves in this new era of intentional uncertainty?