FAO Sees 552.4 Million-Tonne Rice Crop in 2026/27 as Africa Bucks 1.63% Global Drop
Updated
Updated · trendsnafrica.com · Jun 22
FAO Sees 552.4 Million-Tonne Rice Crop in 2026/27 as Africa Bucks 1.63% Global Drop
1 articles · Updated · trendsnafrica.com · Jun 22
Summary
552.4 million tonnes of rice are projected for 2026/27, down from 561.6 million a season earlier, with the FAO expecting most regions to post either lower or flat output.
Asia—nearly 90% of global production—is forecast to slip 1.33% to 495.9 million tonnes as El Niño-linked weather risks threaten yields, though irrigation, subsidies and input support may limit losses.
Africa is the only region expected to grow, with output rising 1.6% to 29.3 million tonnes as governments push food self-sufficiency, invest in rice value chains and expand improved seed use.
Madagascar, Tanzania and Egypt are seen leading that gain, while Ghana and Nigeria face profitability and marketing constraints and parts of West Africa risk below-average rainfall.
18.6 million tonnes a year of average rice imports in 2022-2024 underline that Africa still depends heavily on foreign supply as population growth and urbanization keep demand rising faster than local output.
Africa's rice production is growing, yet it imports more than ever. Can the continent truly achieve food self-sufficiency?
With experts predicting both a rice surplus and a shortage, what does this uncertainty mean for global food prices in 2027?
Climate-friendly rice farming techniques exist. What is preventing their widespread adoption by millions of farmers globally?
Global Rice Output Faces Rare Decline in 2026/27 Amid Climate and Market Shocks
Overview
Global rice production is expected to decline in 2026/27, marking a rare drop after a record harvest the previous year. For the first time since 2015/16, global rice consumption is set to surpass production, leading to tighter supplies and increased market volatility. This shift is driven by climate variability, weather disruptions, and rising input costs like fuel and fertilizer, which are making it harder for farmers to maintain output. As a result, the world faces a more uncertain rice market, with potential price surges and food security concerns becoming more pressing.