POLITICO Poll Finds Over 50% of Americans Reject Prediction-Market Bets
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Jun 22
POLITICO Poll Finds Over 50% of Americans Reject Prediction-Market Bets
2 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jun 22
Summary
More than 50% of Americans said they would not consider betting on a prediction market, while only 6% said they already had, according to a POLITICO Poll of U.S. adults.
Younger adults showed more interest: 12% of both 18-24 and 25-34 respondents said they had placed such wagers, and 30% of those 18-24 said they would consider doing so versus 17% overall.
Politics is becoming a key growth area even as skepticism persists, with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating political, election and public-policy contracts could reach $266 billion in trading volume by 2030, up from 10% of platform volume in early 2025 to 27%.
Regulation remains unsettled as 28% of respondents said the federal government should oversee prediction markets versus 15% favoring states, while sports-betting disputes and a recent insider-trading case have intensified scrutiny.
War and terrorism contracts were especially unpopular, underscoring that public acceptance still lags the industry's push to expand beyond sports into politics and other real-world events.