Opta Gives USMNT 4.69% World Cup Title Odds After 2 Group D Wins
Updated
Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 21
Opta Gives USMNT 4.69% World Cup Title Odds After 2 Group D Wins
3 articles · Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 21
Summary
4.69% is Opta’s projected chance that the United States wins the 2026 World Cup, with the host nation also given a 10.25% shot at reaching the final and 22.38% at the semifinals.
73.26% are the U.S. odds of making the round of 16 after clinching first place in Group D with six points and one match still to play.
4-1 over Paraguay and 2-0 over Australia secured that position, while results elsewhere also locked Mauricio Pochettino’s team into the group’s top spot.
Group-winning status means the U.S. will face a third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I or J in the round of 32, with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal or Jordan the current possibilities.
Only France, Argentina, Spain, England and Germany are rated more likely than the U.S. to reach the semifinals, underscoring how sharply expectations have risen after its strong start at home.