S&P Affirms Thailand's BBB+ Rating as Oil, Imports Threaten 2026 Current Account

1 articles · Updated · Nation Thailand · Jun 22

Thailand kept its BBB+ sovereign rating with a stable outlook, but economists warned rising oil costs and import-heavy investment could push the country into a temporary current-account deficit in 2026.
S&P still sees 2% GDP growth and a 2% current-account surplus, citing strong reserves, low external debt and credible Bank of Thailand policy, even as it expects the budget deficit to stay high at 3.5% of GDP.
Data-centre, electronics and EV projects are driving machinery and technology imports, with some economists arguing the pressure is temporary while others warn reliance on foreign technology could turn into a structural weakness.
The baht is expected to trade around 31.80-33.50 per dollar in the second half, with oil prices, US inflation, Fed decisions and the durability of the Iran-US ceasefire shaping the currency more than domestic factors.