Martin Green Backs Under 3.5 Goals in Spain-Saudi Arabia as Spain Opens at -1100

Q: Despite Spain being a heavy favorite, why does a top expert predict a low-scoring match?

The expert expects a low-scoring game because Spain’s superiority does not necessarily translate into a goal spree. Martin Green’s Under 3.5 pick is driven mainly by Spain’s attacking issues in the opener. Spain dominated Cape Verde but still drew 0-0, with coach Luis de la Fuente admitting his side lacked freshness and a clinical edge. The team created volume but not enough decisive finishing, and it struggled to break down a compact defense. That concern is heightened by fitness problems for Spain’s key wide attackers. Lamine Yamal is still being eased back after a hamstring issue and is not expected to play a full match, while Nico Williams is also not fit to start. Without those natural wingers, Spain loses width, dribbling and one-on-one creativity, making it harder to open up defensive opponents. At the same time, Green does not see Saudi Arabia contributing much to the scoreline. He believes Spain’s defense is strong enough to keep a clean sheet, and he views Saudi Arabia as short on high-level attacking playmakers despite its 1-1 draw with Uruguay. So the logic is not that Spain will struggle to win, but that the match could look more like a controlled Spain victory than a rout — something in the range of 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 rather than a high-scoring shootout.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 21

Under 3.5 goals at -110 is Martin Green’s featured pick for Sunday’s Spain-Saudi Arabia World Cup match, with Spain listed as a heavy -1100 favorite and Saudi Arabia at +2000.
Spain’s attack looked blunt in a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde, and Green said uncertainty over how Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams will be used after late substitute appearances still clouds La Roja’s scoring outlook.
Spain’s defense, however, impressed in the opener, and Green said that unit looks capable of keeping a clean sheet against a Saudi side he views as short on top-end attacking creators.
The Group H stakes are high because all four teams sit on one point after Saudi Arabia’s 1-1 draw with Uruguay, making the Atlanta match critical to both teams’ hopes of advancing.