Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Jun 19
ECB's Wunsch Backs 25-Bps Hike if Inflation Surprises Persist as Markets Price 36 Bps
Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Jun 19

ECB's Wunsch Backs 25-Bps Hike if Inflation Surprises Persist as Markets Price 36 Bps

1 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Jun 19

Summary

  • Wunsch said he would support another 25-basis-point ECB rate hike if incoming inflation data keeps overshooting forecasts, citing a recent pickup in euro zone services inflation.
  • The Belgian policymaker said there is no need to rush if data stays mixed, but persistent upside surprises would warrant precautionary tightening.
  • He defended last week's ECB increase, arguing it was justified while inflation was rising and uncertainty remained high, and said real interest rates had actually edged lower.
  • Wunsch added the ECB would still have room to cut later if pressures ease, though softer wage growth and calmer Iran-related tensions could support looking through the recent energy-driven spike.
  • Markets are pricing about 36 basis points of tightening by year-end, including a 67% chance of another hike in September, as Wunsch called for clearer data-dependent ECB guidance.

Insights

Is another ECB rate hike an effective cure for rising services inflation or a risky economic gamble?
Can the ECB fight war-fueled inflation without pushing Europe's fragile economy into recession?