FIFA Survey Shows 4 Points Usually Send 48-Team World Cup Teams Into Last 32
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 20
FIFA Survey Shows 4 Points Usually Send 48-Team World Cup Teams Into Last 32
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 20
Summary
A review of 38 comparable tournaments suggests four points will usually be enough for a third-placed team to reach the 48-team World Cup's last 32, where the best eight third-place finishers also advance.
Five points has never left a team outside the top two in its group, while four points failed only twice for third-placed teams—and both cases came at U-20 World Cups.
Three points produces slightly less than a 50% advancement rate, with positive goal difference often decisive; three points with a negative goal difference cuts the chance to under one in three.
Two points has been enough only twice in surveyed tournaments using three points for a win, most recently for Tanzania at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.
The expanded format is only FIFA's second 48-team tournament, leaving limited direct precedent beyond the 2025 U-17 World Cup in Qatar.