Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 20
US Stocks Climb 14% on Trump Reversals as Bond Investors Shun Treasuries
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 20

US Stocks Climb 14% on Trump Reversals as Bond Investors Shun Treasuries

2 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 20

Summary

  • US equities have settled into a playbook: buy at the first sign Donald Trump is backing away from disruptive trade or foreign-policy moves, with stocks rising more than 14% since early April.
  • That pattern also held after Trump paused his tariff surge in April 2025, while investors who simply held the S&P 500 since late March 2025 would now be up about 30%.
  • Treasuries have reacted differently, failing to recover losses from the start of the Iran war and leaving US borrowing costs higher as investors price inflation risks and heavier debt issuance.
  • Large institutions including pension funds, insurers and sovereign wealth funds are trimming exposure to US credibility risk, focusing less on a Treasury dump than on possible political interference in monetary policy.
  • Debt officials in Germany, the UK, Italy, Canada and the EU say Middle Eastern and Asian buyers are showing stronger interest in non-US sovereign debt, hinting at early competition for the US debt market.

Insights

While stocks soar on AI hopes, bond markets signal danger. Which market is correctly predicting the US economy's future?
With US debt soaring and rivals emerging, are Treasury bonds losing their status as the world’s safest investment?
The new Fed chair is hiking rates to fight inflation. Will this kill the AI-driven stock boom and trigger a recession?