Vico Put 89% Odds on US Strike on Iran Before February 28 Attack
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 18
Vico Put 89% Odds on US Strike on Iran Before February 28 Attack
1 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 18
Summary
By February 19, Vico Technologies' AI model assigned an 89% probability to a US attack on Iran by March 31; the strike was launched on February 28.
That call outpaced prediction market Polymarket, which put the odds at 63.5%, and Vico says its overall Brier score is below 0.15—better than all but the best human superforecasters.
Vico combines generative AI with human oversight to sift large data sets and estimate not just headline events but second- and third-order effects for investors, companies and governments.
The approach still faces limits: polluted inputs, deliberate 'LLM grooming' and synthetic data can distort model outputs, even if AI systems are less directly gameable than prediction markets.
The report argues AI is making some geopolitical forecasting more predictable, but its durability will depend on constant adaptation as data environments and real-world behavior keep shifting.
Can AI truly predict unprecedented global crises, or is its accuracy limited to past patterns?
Is AI's thirst for energy creating a predictable environmental crisis while it forecasts others?
As AI predicts our future, who ensures the technology doesn't also dictate it?
$1 Million in Insider Bets: How the February 28, 2026 US-Israel Strike on Iran Exposed National Security Risks in Prediction Markets
Overview
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a major joint offensive, Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iran’s leadership and military assets. The strike was much larger than previous actions and resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Khamenei, causing a major shift in Iran’s political landscape. In response, Iran fired missiles and drones, spreading conflict across the region and triggering air raid sirens in Israel. This escalation not only intensified regional instability but also set off a chain of suspicious trading activity on prediction markets, raising concerns about insider trading and national security risks.