Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 18

Martin Green Backs Under 2.5 Goals in Canada-Qatar Match as Canada Sits -340 Favorite

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 18

Martin Green Backs Under 2.5 Goals in Canada-Qatar Match as Canada Sits -340 Favorite

Q: In the new 48-team format, is a draw a strategic win for co-host Canada's chances to advance?

Yes. In the 48-team World Cup, a draw is more valuable than it used to be, and for Canada it can be a strategically useful result in the race to advance. The key change is the format: the top two teams in each of the 12 groups go through, along with the eight best third-place teams. That means one point can matter a great deal, especially in a balanced group like Canada’s. A draw keeps Canada moving, avoids the damage of a loss, and preserves goal difference for possible third-place tiebreaks. In Canada’s specific situation, context matters. Canada opened with a 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina, a match it was expected to win, so another draw against Qatar would not be ideal. Canada is the clear favorite against Qatar, and if it wants to avoid pressure in the final group match, three points are the better outcome. A second straight draw would leave Canada on two points and likely needing a result in its last game while also watching tiebreak scenarios. Still, a draw would not be a bad result in pure advancement terms. Switzerland already has four points after beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1, so Group B is tightening. If Canada draws Qatar, it stays ahead of a loss scenario and remains alive for either a top-two finish or one of the best third-place spots. So the strategic answer is this: a draw helps Canada’s chances, but against Qatar, a team Canada is expected to beat at home, it would feel more like damage limitation than a true success.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 18

Martin Green’s featured pick for Thursday’s Canada-Qatar World Cup match is Under 2.5 goals at +106, with SportsLine saying he has locked in three best bets, including two plus-money plays.
Canada enters the Group B game as a -340 money-line favorite at FanDuel, while Qatar is +950 and the draw is +470; kickoff is 6 p.m. ET in Vancouver.
Green’s under call rests on both teams’ blunt openers: Canada did not score until the 78th minute in a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar needed a stoppage-time own goal to draw 1-1 with Switzerland.
He also points to style and form, saying Canada tends to sit back and absorb pressure while Qatar’s defense has shown it can withstand sustained attacks.
Green’s recent betting record underpins the attention on the picks: he is 18-8 over his last 26 Champions League selections after profitable results last year in the Champions League and Bundesliga.