Updated

Updated · Fox Weather · Jun 18

Arthur Remnants Face 10% East Coast Redevelopment Risk as Flooding Dumps Up to 20 Inches on Gulf Coast

Updated

Updated · Fox Weather · Jun 18

Arthur Remnants Face 10% East Coast Redevelopment Risk as Flooding Dumps Up to 20 Inches on Gulf Coast

Q: Could the ghost of Storm Arthur redevelop and strike the East Coast next?

Yes — but only with a low probability, and any East Coast impacts would most likely be limited to rain and gusty winds rather than a major strike. Arthur has already weakened into a remnant low after making landfall near Freeport, Texas. Its main danger now is inland: life-threatening flash flooding from Texas across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Southeast, with 5 to 10 inches of rain and isolated totals up to 20 inches through early Friday. Forecasters are watching Arthur’s leftover mid-level circulation as it moves across the Southeast and approaches the Carolinas by Friday. Once offshore, it could interact with the warm Gulf Stream and help spin up a new low-pressure area. That is why the National Hurricane Center has marked an “Area to Watch” off the East Coast. Still, the odds of redevelopment are low. Forecast guidance cited by the NHC and FOX Forecast Center gives only about a 10% chance over the next two days, with atmospheric conditions described as only marginally favorable. Wind shear remains a limiting factor, which makes significant strengthening unlikely. So the “ghost” of Arthur could briefly reorganize near or off the Carolinas, but the more likely scenario is a weak coastal low bringing periods of heavy rain, rough surf, and gusty winds rather than a strong tropical storm making a direct East Coast hit. Whether any regenerated system would keep the name Arthur remains uncertain.

3 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · Jun 18

A new Area to Watch was designated off the East Coast after Tropical Storm Arthur weakened into a remnant low within 12 hours, with the National Hurricane Center giving it a 10% chance of redevelopment in two days.
Arthur’s mid-level spin is forecast to cross the Southeast and reach the Carolinas by Friday evening, then move over the warmer Gulf Stream where a new low-pressure area could form and bring gusty weather and downpours to coastal areas.
Flooding remains the more immediate threat: Arthur’s remnants have already produced wind gusts above 50 mph in parts of Texas, and all coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued.
The NHC still expects life-threatening flooding through late week across parts of the Southeast, with 5 to 10 inches of rain and isolated totals near 20 inches from the Texas coast across Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama.