Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 18
30-Year Treasury Yields Seen Exceeding 5% by Year-End as 57% Back Rise
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 18

30-Year Treasury Yields Seen Exceeding 5% by Year-End as 57% Back Rise

1 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 18

Summary

  • 57% of 101 Markets Pulse respondents said 30-year Treasury yields will finish 2026 at or above 5%, pointing to a renewed climb in long-end borrowing costs.
  • The survey reflects doubts that the Federal Reserve will move quickly enough to contain the recent inflation surge, a key driver behind the higher year-end yield view.
  • The 30-year yield is now around 4.90% after breaching 5% last month, when the Iran war's oil shock pushed it to a nearly two-decade high.
  • That level has proved volatile before: the yield briefly topped 5% in 2023 after aggressive Fed hikes and again after Donald Trump's tariff rollout last year, before retreating.

Insights

Is the recent surge in global bond yields a temporary crisis or the dawn of a new, more expensive economic era?
Iran's fragile truce offers relief, but can it stop sticky inflation and record debt from pushing borrowing costs even higher?