SpaceX Seen Hitting No. 2 by July 2028 With 50% Odds, No. 1 at 41%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 18
SpaceX Seen Hitting No. 2 by July 2028 With 50% Odds, No. 1 at 41%
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 18
Summary
$2.6 trillion SpaceX is priced by options traders as having a roughly 50% chance of becoming the world's second-most valuable company by about July 2028.
A move to second place would require the stock to reach about $340—roughly 70% above current levels—enough to pass Apple and Alphabet, both valued above $4.4 trillion if they stay flat.
June 2028 calls imply about 46% odds of touching that level, while gaps in listed expiries between June and December 2028 make the timing less precise.
The climb to No. 1 looks harder: options suggest about a 38% chance by June 2028 and 41% by December 2028 of overtaking $5 trillion Nvidia.
The pricing reflects how traders use option deltas and strike costs as probability signals for whether SpaceX can keep climbing from its current neck-and-neck race with Amazon for fifth place.