California Billionaire Tax Ballot Odds Fall Below 50% as Newsom Moves to Kill 5% Levy
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Jun 18
California Billionaire Tax Ballot Odds Fall Below 50% as Newsom Moves to Kill 5% Levy
3 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Jun 18
Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket now put California’s billionaire tax at just under a 50-50 chance of reaching the November ballot ahead of the June 25 certification deadline.
Those odds plunged from above 80%—and near 90% on Polymarket—after Bloomberg and Politico reported that Gov. Gavin Newsom was working to block the measure.
Traders are even more skeptical about passage: Kalshi priced the tax at just over 19% and Polymarket at 18%, even though it would need only a simple majority if it qualifies.
The proposal would impose a one-time 2026 tax on residents and certain trusts worth at least $1 billion, with a 5% top rate above $1.1 billion and a retroactive feature tied to Jan. 1, 2026 residency.
Opposition is already heavily funded: Sergey Brin has given $82 million to a PAC that has raised $129 million from 10 donors for rival measures that could undercut or override the tax.
What legal maneuvers are California's billionaires using to protect their fortunes from a retroactive tax?
Why is California's governor fighting a billionaire tax meant to solve a budget crisis?
California’s $20 Billion Billionaire Tax Battle: Political Showdown, Economic Fallout, and National Implications Ahead of 2026 Ballot
Overview
California faces a heated political showdown over a proposed one-time billionaire tax, with Governor Gavin Newsom working urgently to block its appearance on the November 2026 ballot before the June 25 certification deadline. This battle has exposed deep divisions within the Democratic coalition, as progressive advocates and some labor groups support the tax, while moderates worry about economic fallout. The outcome will test Newsom’s political influence and could reshape alliances, as both wealthy individuals and unexpected Democratic-aligned groups join the opposition. The next days are critical, with high stakes for California’s economy, politics, and public services.