Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows May Recover to Only 70% of Pre-War Levels
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 18
Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows May Recover to Only 70% of Pre-War Levels
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 18
Summary
Goldman Sachs said Strait of Hormuz oil flows may stabilize at about 70% of pre-war levels rather than fully rebound after the conflict.
A 13-million-barrel-a-day increase from current traffic would be enough to restore Gulf exports to pre-war levels, the bank said, because regional producers are relying more on alternative routes.
That shift led Goldman to frame 70% of former Hormuz volumes as a possible “new 100%” for normal Gulf export operations.
The note points to a lasting post-war change in Middle East oil logistics, with export capacity less tied to a full recovery in Hormuz transit.
Is the world's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz permanently broken after this crisis?
Beyond mines, can the 'insurance weapon' be disarmed to reopen the world's most vital oil artery?
Will Iran's proposed 'service fees' set a new precedent for controlling global maritime chokepoints?
Oil Prices, Supply Chains, and Geopolitics: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Its Global Economic Impact
Overview
In June 2026, the U.S. and Iran reached an initial agreement, with President Donald Trump signing a deal that extended the ceasefire by 60 days and began a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement quickly shifted market sentiment, as the previous closure of the Strait—a vital route for global oil—had caused fuel prices to surge, increased costs for food and fertilizers, and pushed U.S. inflation to 4%. The deal marks a turning point, offering hope for easing supply constraints and stabilizing markets, but recovery remains uncertain as the reopening process will be gradual and challenges persist.