Exxon Studies Woodside Takeover to Expand LNG in Asia as Strait of Hormuz Reopens

Q: With Woodside's stock deeply undervalued, what price could unlock this Australian LNG prize for a global giant like Exxon?

A credible “unlock” price for Woodside looks to be in the mid‑A$50s a share, with any real takeover bid likely needing to come in around or above that level once a control premium is added. That view is anchored by valuation work circulating in the market. Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow estimates put Woodside’s intrinsic value at roughly A$55.4-A$57.5 a share, versus a recent trading range near A$31-A$32. On that basis, the stock appears about 44%-45% undervalued. If Exxon were serious, a bid pitched only near the current market price would be unlikely to satisfy shareholders given that gap. Woodside also has assets that support a higher strategic valuation than the screen price implies. Scarborough is 96% complete and due to ship first LNG in the fourth quarter of 2026, Louisiana LNG is advancing toward 2029 start-up, and core assets such as Pluto LNG and North West Shelf are running with very high reliability. Around 60%-70% of Woodside revenue is tied to LNG sales into Asia, exactly the market Exxon wants to deepen. That said, a practical bid price would depend on more than DCF math. Exxon would have to weigh Woodside’s roughly $9.3 billion net debt, heavy capital spending, LNG market volatility and Australian foreign investment scrutiny. Even so, if Woodside is the target, the market evidence suggests the conversation starts around intrinsic value in the mid‑A$50s per share, not the low‑A$30s where the stock trades.

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17

Exxon Mobil is evaluating takeover targets including Woodside Energy Group to deepen its liquefied natural gas footprint and strengthen its position in Asian markets.
The review comes as Exxon looks to capitalize on shifting global energy flows after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, seeing acquisitions as a faster route to scale.
Bloomberg News reported the interest last week, while the latest analysis argues such a deal could leave Exxon paying heavily for exposure to an LNG market whose strongest growth phase has already passed.