Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17
Federal Reserve Risks Next Boom-Bust Cycle as Warsh Weighs Rate Hikes
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17

Federal Reserve Risks Next Boom-Bust Cycle as Warsh Weighs Rate Hikes

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17

Summary

  • Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve sharpens a policy dilemma: a more rules-based approach would point toward rate hikes, even as analysis warns the Fed is helping fuel another boom-bust cycle.
  • Bond markets are already signaling higher rates, and recent data back that view — in places where unemployment fell over the past six months, inflation also increased.
  • That puts Warsh between market expectations and President Donald Trump’s push for rate cuts, complicating any effort to tighten policy quickly.
  • The broader argument is that accepting higher rates now could curb excesses earlier and reduce the risk of a deeper bust later.

Insights

As the Fed is drawn into 'economic statecraft,' can its independence in setting domestic interest rates truly be maintained?
With federal debt over $40 trillion, can the Fed hike rates to fight inflation without triggering a severe fiscal crisis?