Updated

Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 16

England Eyes Group L Win Over Croatia as Tuchel Weighs 61-Goal Kane and Saka Fitness

Updated

Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 16

England Eyes Group L Win Over Croatia as Tuchel Weighs 61-Goal Kane and Saka Fitness

Q: Could finishing third in their group be England's secret path to World Cup glory?

Possibly, but only as a quirk of the 2026 bracket rather than a plan England should pursue. The expanded 48-team World Cup sends the top two teams in each group plus the eight best third-place finishers into the Round of 32. Some bracket projections suggest England’s route could actually be softer if they finish third than if they finish second, because second place may set up an early meeting with a heavyweight such as Spain. One analysis cited in the background material even rated England’s quarter-final chances at 59% from third, compared with 49% from first and 29% from second. That said, this is a mathematical curiosity, not a practical strategy. To finish third, England would likely have underperformed against Croatia, Ghana or Panama, which would raise doubts about form, confidence and control. Third-place teams also depend on results elsewhere to qualify, adding uncertainty that a contender would rather avoid. There are also strong reasons England still want to win Group L. Topping the group is expected to reduce travel and time-zone disruption on the way to the final, an important factor in a tournament spread across North America. It would also likely bring a more stable schedule and preserve momentum for Tuchel’s side. So yes, third could theoretically open a favorable knockout path. But for a team with England’s squad and expectations, it is more a bracket anomaly than a sensible route to glory. The safest and most credible objective remains finishing first.

3 articles · Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 16

Dallas hosts England’s World Cup opener against Croatia, with Thomas Tuchel expected to lean on Harry Kane after the striker scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich last season.
Bukayo Saka’s fitness remains a selection issue after Tuchel said he is not yet “100 per cent,” opening the door for Noni Madueke to start on the right wing.
Elliot Anderson is tipped to start in midfield alongside Declan Rice, with the Nottingham Forest standout reportedly valued at about $160 million after his 2025-26 breakout.
England’s likely XI also includes Jordan Pickford, Reece James, John Stones, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon for the Group L clash at AT&T Stadium.
The opener revives a rivalry Croatia won in the 2018 World Cup semifinal, though England have taken two wins and three draws from the five meetings since.