US Crude Prices Ease as Hormuz Reopening Brings Gulf Barrels Back

Q: The Hormuz peace deal is signed. How long before the world’s oil supertankers actually return to the reopened strait?

Not immediately: the strait may reopen formally within days, but a meaningful return of oil supertankers is more likely to take weeks, with something close to normal traffic taking months. The deal is due to be formally signed on June 19, and the Trump administration says it wants Hormuz traffic back to prewar levels within 30 days. But shipping and oil analysts are much more cautious. Mitsui OSK Lines has said tanker operators will likely wait for concrete changes on the water before resuming normal transit. Energy Aspects sees a best-case recovery to about half of prewar oil transit tonnage by the end of June, while Capital Economics estimates roughly 80% of energy flows could be back by the end of the third quarter. The delay is practical as much as political. Tankers were rerouted during the conflict and many are now out of position. Hundreds of vessels are also backed up in and around the Gulf. Mine-clearing and safety verification could take 40 to 50 days, and insurers are still charging very high war-risk premiums. Shipowners will also want proof that both naval forces and Iranian authorities can keep the route open without incident. That means some ships may start returning almost immediately after the signing, but the world’s supertanker fleet is unlikely to come back at scale before July. A broad normalization of flows is more likely later in the summer, with full prewar conditions potentially slipping into late 2026 or even 2027.

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17

US physical crude prices weakened as the wartime risk premium faded, with key Gulf Coast export grades that jumped during the conflict now losing strength.
The pullback followed a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears over Middle Eastern supply disruptions and reviving expectations for Persian Gulf barrels to return.
That shift is reversing a conflict-driven surge in US export grades, which had risen as buyers priced in tighter global crude availability.
The move points to broader relief in oil markets as supply risk from the Gulf recedes and physical pricing adjusts to a less constrained outlook.