U.S., Mexico Open Trade Talks on $3 Billion Cattle Flow as Trump Warns on 2036 Pact Exit
Updated
Updated · The Conversation · Jun 16
U.S., Mexico Open Trade Talks on $3 Billion Cattle Flow as Trump Warns on 2036 Pact Exit
3 articles · Updated · The Conversation · Jun 16
Summary
June 16-17 talks between U.S. and Mexican negotiators turned to agriculture, with beef a key test case as Trump warned Washington may not renew the 2020 North American trade pact.
More than $3 billion in U.S. cattle imports from Mexico and Canada helped stabilize supply in 2024, but that flow is already under strain after 2025 live-cattle imports fell over 50% and Mexican feeder-cattle shipments dropped more than 80% in 2026.
Ground beef prices have climbed more than 20% since January 2025, with the U.S. herd already at its smallest since the 1950s and a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into Texas and New Mexico.
Canada is sitting out the current talks, even though all three countries must decide by July 1 whether to extend the pact for 16 years or shift to annual reviews until its 2036 sunset.
If the U.S. quits the deal, Mexico and Canada could raise tariffs and tighten inspections, disrupting cattle that often cross borders multiple times and pushing beef prices higher for U.S. consumers.
As beef prices surge, can negotiators solve the cross-border cattle crisis before it permanently changes the market?
How will this review redefine North America's entire economic strategy against future global disruptions?
North America on the Brink: USMCA’s 2026 Review and the Looming Trade Crisis
Overview
North America's economic future is uncertain as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) nears its first major review in 2026. The USMCA is crucial for the region’s deeply connected economy, with Mexico and Canada being top trading partners for the U.S. and accounting for a large share of its exports and imports. If the agreement’s future is threatened, it could disrupt these vital trade flows and create widespread instability. This uncertainty is heightened by recent political developments and trade tensions, making the upcoming review a critical moment for North American economic stability.