Updated

Updated · Reuters · Jun 16

Europe's Gasoline Exports to U.S. Fall to 1.63 Million Bpd as June Stocks Hit 2014 Low

Updated

Updated · Reuters · Jun 16

Europe's Gasoline Exports to U.S. Fall to 1.63 Million Bpd as June Stocks Hit 2014 Low

Q: A peace deal was just signed, so why do experts still forecast record-high U.S. gas prices this summer?

Experts still expect very high U.S. gasoline prices because the peace deal may calm crude markets, but it does not quickly fix the physical shortage of gasoline. The main problem is refined fuel supply, not just oil prices. Europe is sending less gasoline to the U.S. as its own demand rises and its refining capacity has shrunk. European shipments to the U.S. fell to 1.63 million barrels a day in May from 1.9 million a year earlier, while U.S. gasoline inventories were only 215 million barrels in early June, the lowest for that point in the year since 2014. Morgan Stanley says stocks could drop below 200 million barrels by late August. The Iran war also disrupted refinery operations and tanker flows, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Even with a deal, shipping, insurance, mine clearance, loading schedules and refinery restarts take time. Analysts say oil and fuel flows may take months to normalize, with some recovery not expected until 2027. At the same time, refiners worldwide have been shifting output toward diesel and jet fuel, where shortages are more acute, leaving less gasoline available. Energy Aspects estimates global gasoline deficits of about 1 million barrels a day in May and 1.13 million in June, far above normal. That is why pump prices may stay elevated even after crude falls. Retail gasoline usually drops more slowly than it rises, and U.S. refiners are already running hard, limiting their ability to quickly rebuild stocks during peak summer demand.

2 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 16

European gasoline and blending-component shipments to the U.S. averaged 1.63 million bpd in May, down from 1.9 million a year earlier and the lowest May level since 2020.
Refinery closures, Iran-war disruptions and stronger European demand are keeping more fuel in Europe, with second-quarter exports to the U.S. seen at just 252,000 bpd.
U.S. gasoline inventories stood at 215 million barrels on June 5, the lowest for any June since 2014, while refiners have limited room to raise output because many are already running near maximum rates.
The U.S.-Iran peace deal pushed average U.S. pump prices below $4 a gallon, but analysts say oil and fuel flows will take months to normalize and gasoline could stay tight through summer.
Energy Aspects estimates a global gasoline deficit of 1 million bpd in May and 1.13 million bpd in June, with World Cup travel potentially adding to U.S. demand.