Global Oil Markets Capped Peak Prices Near $125, Averting a $200 Spike
Updated
Updated · robinjbrooks.substack.com · Jun 16
Global Oil Markets Capped Peak Prices Near $125, Averting a $200 Spike
3 articles · Updated · robinjbrooks.substack.com · Jun 16
Summary
$200 oil never materialized during the recent shock, with prices peaking around $125 a barrel instead of surging to the triple-digit extremes many forecasts warned of.
Academic demand-elasticity estimates implied an oil rise of roughly 70% to 80% at most, and the report argues that range was validated because prices failed to stay above that threshold even before peace-talk speculation emerged.
South Korea's trade shift illustrates the mechanism: imports from Saudi Arabia slumped, but replacement barrels from Canada and elsewhere kept overall supplies nearly intact as buyers paid more and spread the shock globally.
That resilience, the report argues, also shows blockades can hurt exporters without triggering uncontrollable price spikes, strengthening the case for Europe to tighten enforcement against Russia's shadow fleet.