U.S. Cattle Herd Falls to 86.2 Million, Pushing Beef Prices Up 12.9%

2 articles · Updated · The Texas Tribune · Jun 16

86.2 million head of cattle were in U.S. herds at the start of 2026, the smallest inventory since 1951, tightening supply across ranching, packing and restaurants.
Screwworm outbreaks, drought, wildfires and inflation have slowed herd rebuilding, while a 2024 trade war disrupted cattle and beef flows; Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the parasite threat could last months.
Texas ranchers are delaying branding, castration and other wound-creating work to avoid infection risk, and nearly 50% of the state was in drought last week versus 36% a year earlier.
Beef packers are already feeling the squeeze: Caviness Beef Packers is running at 75% to 80% of capacity, paying $2.55 per pound for steers versus $1.70 in 2021 and operating at negative margins.
Consumers and restaurants are absorbing the fallout as May CPI showed beef prices up 12.9% year over year; one Austin barbecue chain raised a half-pound brisket order to about $16 and says demand has slipped 6%.

Sources

The Texas Tribune21h ago

U.S. Cattle Herd Shrinks to 1951 Low Amid Screwworm, Inflation, Drought, and Trade War

Gilmer Mirror21h ago

No fat to trim: Texas beef industry profits eaten away by new threat — the screwworm – The Gilmer Mirror

Ranchers are losing money while beef prices soar. Can the government’s antitrust probe actually fix the broken supply chain?

A parasite thought eradicated is devastating Texas cattle. What other forgotten threats could suddenly cripple our modern food supply?

Record Low U.S. Cattle Herds and Screwworm Outbreak Drive Beef Prices to Historic Highs

Overview

The U.S. beef industry is facing a severe crisis in 2026, driven by a shrinking cattle herd, rising beef prices, and the dangerous return of the New World Screwworm. Producers are struggling to rebuild herds as the screwworm, which feeds on living flesh, spreads after a breakdown in long-standing protective barriers. This biological threat adds to existing supply challenges, making beef more expensive and putting extra pressure on ranchers. The combined impact of herd contraction, disease, and high costs is straining the entire supply chain, highlighting the urgent need for effective solutions to protect both producers and consumers.

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