Kalshi Traders Give Anthropic Fable 5 a 58% Chance of U.S. Return by July 1
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 16
Kalshi Traders Give Anthropic Fable 5 a 58% Chance of U.S. Return by July 1
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 16
Summary
Kalshi traders now price a 58% chance that Anthropic restores general U.S. access to Fable 5 before July 1, rising to 74% by July 10.
Anthropic shut off Fable 5 and Mythos 5 on Friday after a U.S. government order required it to suspend access for any foreign national, prompting the company to disable the models for all customers.
Polymarket shows a similar view, with traders assigning 67% odds that Fable 5 returns to U.S. customers by July 1.
Monday talks between Anthropic and the Trump administration appear to be driving the optimism, though it remains unclear whether the meeting produced any breakthrough.
The shutdown came only days after Fable 5's launch and adds to earlier friction with the administration after the Defense Department labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk in March.