Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 16
U.S. Gasoline Signals Drop Toward $2.00 as Futures Complete Bearish Reversal Pattern
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 16

U.S. Gasoline Signals Drop Toward $2.00 as Futures Complete Bearish Reversal Pattern

1 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 16

Summary

  • U.S. gasoline futures have fallen more than 20% from their April Iran-war peak, and chart action now points to another leg lower toward $2.00-$2.10.
  • The bearish signal is a head-and-shoulders pattern: a left shoulder near $3.40, a $3.82 peak on April 30, a right shoulder around $3.20-$3.25, and a neckline near $2.90.
  • RSI momentum also points lower and failed to confirm the April high, reinforcing the view that the rally was losing steam, though near-oversold readings suggest the pattern may need more time to finish.
  • The latest slide was helped by the announced deal to end hostilities, but gasoline remains sensitive to Iran-war developments; a rebound above $3.40 would invalidate the bearish setup.

Insights

With global oil stockpiles at a 40-year low, could the Iran peace deal be a prelude to an even greater price shock?
The Iran-war exposed critical supply chain risks. What is the next global chokepoint that could trigger a similar energy crisis?
Markets reacted instantly to the peace deal, but how long will it really take to clear the mined Strait of Hormuz for shipping?