Updated
Updated · Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 12
Ukraine Retakes 78 Square Miles With Drones, Reversing Russian Momentum
Updated
Updated · Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 12

Ukraine Retakes 78 Square Miles With Drones, Reversing Russian Momentum

3 articles · Updated · Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 12

Summary

  • Ukraine retook 78 square miles in five days in February and has kept advancing in its fifth spring offensive, marking a reversal after Russia’s gains through 2025.
  • 75% to 85% of frontline casualties now come from drones, and Ukraine’s newer systems strike 30 to 100 kilometers behind the front, hitting logistics, radar and electronic-warfare sites that disrupt Russian command and supply lines.
  • Under-$10,000 drones, fiber-optic guidance, autonomy and AI have helped Ukraine blunt jamming and keep attacks going even when GPS or operator links are cut.
  • 4 million robotic and autonomous systems were produced by Ukraine in 2025, with 5 million to 6 million expected in 2026; Kyiv says capacity could reach 20 million drones annually if allies provide funding.
  • A €90 billion EU loan package being finalized includes €6 billion for drones, support that could widen Ukraine’s narrow window to sustain defense pressure on Russia by air and at sea.

Insights

Can Ukraine’s low-cost drone swarms render billion-dollar Western fighter jets and warships obsolete on future battlefields?
As Ukraine's AI drones redefine warfare, can Russia's own autonomous systems close the technological gap before it’s too late?
When an AI drone makes the final kill decision, who is legally responsible if it strikes the wrong target?