SportsLine Simulates 2026 U.S. Open 10,000 Times, Backs Scheffler at +550

Q: A proven model predicts a 45-1 longshot will contend, but who is this surprise U.S. Open challenger?

The specific 45-1 longshot has not been publicly identified in the provided SportsLine material. The article says only that the model likes a player “going off around 45-1” and directs readers to SportsLine to see the full picks. Based on the odds board included with the coverage, the most plausible candidates at roughly 45-1 are Chris Gotterup and Patrick Cantlay, with related reporting also mentioning Patrick Reed and Viktor Hovland in that range. Of those, Cantlay has drawn outside support as a sleeper because of his steady U.S. Open record and comfort in difficult setups, while Reed has course history at Shinnecock after finishing fourth there in 2018. So the best factual answer is that the surprise challenger is not explicitly named in the available report. If forced to identify the likely pool, it centers on the 45-1 group led by Patrick Cantlay and Chris Gotterup, with Reed and Hovland also fitting the price range cited.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 16

SportsLine ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills and made Scottie Scheffler its top projected contender ahead of Thursday's start.
Scheffler enters at +550 and would complete the career Grand Slam with a win; the model notes he has top-7 finishes in four of his last five U.S. Opens.
Brooks Koepka, the 2018 Shinnecock winner, is the model's notable fade at +3500, projecting him outside the top 25 after an uneven return season and no top-10 finish in his last 12 majors.
Rory McIlroy is next on the odds board at +1200, but the model flags his 125th-ranked driving accuracy as a risk at a course lined by 5-inch rough despite his elite tee-to-green form.
Shinnecock is hosting the U.S. Open for the sixth time, with a field that includes a dozen past champions and longshot options the model says could surprise at around 45-1.