Analyst Sees 2026 Mortgage Rates Falling to Mid-5% as Cooling Inflation Opens Door to Fed Cuts
Updated
Updated · jetsetmag.com · Jun 15
Analyst Sees 2026 Mortgage Rates Falling to Mid-5% as Cooling Inflation Opens Door to Fed Cuts
2 articles · Updated · jetsetmag.com · Jun 15
Summary
Mortgage rates could ease from about 6.5% now into the mid-5% range in 2026 if inflation keeps moving toward the Fed’s 2% target, the analyst said.
Fed rate cuts would not directly set mortgage costs, but they would likely pull down 10-year Treasury yields, which mortgage rates closely track.
A shift from 6.5% to 5.5% would materially boost buying power, potentially lifting home demand and prices again in supply-constrained markets.
A weaker economy could push rates down faster as investors buy Treasuries, but a deeper recession and rising unemployment could still soften housing demand despite cheaper loans.
Trump’s housing push also includes ideas such as 40- or 50-year mortgages, assumable loans and penalty-free 401(k) down-payment use, measures aimed at affordability rather than directly lowering rates.