El Niño Arrives With 63% Odds of Becoming Very Strong, Threatening California Rain and Coastal Flooding
Updated
Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jun 15
El Niño Arrives With 63% Odds of Becoming Very Strong, Threatening California Rain and Coastal Flooding
3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jun 15
Summary
NOAA says El Niño is now underway, with a 63% chance of becoming “very strong” by late 2026 and an 88% chance of ending up strong or very strong.
Southern California faces the clearest near-term risk: past very strong El Niños have brought more than double normal rainfall in some winters, raising the odds of heavy storms and large-scale flooding.
California’s coast is also vulnerable because major El Niños can lift local sea levels by 6 to 10 inches, worsening high-tide flooding, strong surf and beach erosion.
Warmer Pacific waters could push global temperatures higher and shift marine life toward shore, including more tropical species and shark sightings off Southern California.
That same ocean warming can damage ecosystems already stressed by marine heat waves, with risks including kelp loss, harmful algal blooms, fishery disruptions and die-offs of sea lions and seabirds.
With a 'sharky summer' hitting California, what permanent changes will this El Niño leave on ocean ecosystems?
As this El Niño threatens trillions in damage, are global economies ready for the shock to supply chains?
We can predict El Niño's impact better than ever. Are we using this knowledge to prevent disaster?
The 2026-27 El Niño: Tracking a Potentially "Very Strong" Event in a Warming World and Its Global Impacts
Overview
As of June 2026, scientists are closely monitoring the developing 2026-27 El Niño event, which brings unique challenges and uncertainties. NOAA has adopted the new Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), which updates monthly and offers more accurate tracking of sea surface temperatures than older methods. RONI’s improved correlation with changes in the Walker Circulation since 2021 gives experts better information to forecast El Niño and La Niña events. This helps weather experts, emergency managers, and the public prepare for potential impacts, as the 2026-27 El Niño unfolds in a world with warmer oceans and more complex climate patterns.