US 10-Year Yield Premium Hits 48 Basis Points as Iran Conflict Lifts Inflation Risk
Updated
Updated · Investing.com · Jun 11
US 10-Year Yield Premium Hits 48 Basis Points as Iran Conflict Lifts Inflation Risk
3 articles · Updated · Investing.com · Jun 11
Summary
The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.56% on June 10, leaving it 48 basis points above a fair-value estimate—the widest premium since July 2025.
That gap has reopened as investors reassess inflation and broader macro risks tied to the Iran conflict, reversing a prior normalization trend in long-term yields.
Monthly data through May from The Capital Spectator’s ensemble model show the premium climbing again after it had been steadily unwinding from the pandemic-era inflation surge.
The latest move leaves the benchmark yield near a 12-month high, signaling that geopolitical risk is again feeding into US rate expectations.