BoB Sees India 2026-27 CPI at 5.2%-5.5% as El Niño Odds Hit 80%
Updated
Updated · India.com · Jun 14
BoB Sees India 2026-27 CPI at 5.2%-5.5% as El Niño Odds Hit 80%
2 articles · Updated · India.com · Jun 14
Summary
BoB Research projects India’s 2026-27 CPI inflation at 5.2%-5.5%, building in El Niño risks and average crude oil prices of $90-$100 a barrel.
An El Niño event is seen as 80% likely between June and August, with a 90%-plus chance of lasting until at least November, raising the risk of food-price pressure.
May 2026 headline CPI rose to 3.9% from 3.5% in April, driven by food and fuel; food inflation reached 4.8% and core inflation climbed to 3.9%.
Reservoir levels are still above normal and vegetable supplies remain adequate, but BoB said sudden swings in food and fuel prices could test whether supply conditions can contain second-round inflation effects.