Lowy Warns China Could Field 25 SSNs by 2035, Expanding Strike Reach Into Australia
Updated
Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Jun 15
Lowy Warns China Could Field 25 SSNs by 2035, Expanding Strike Reach Into Australia
3 articles · Updated · Sydney Morning Herald · Jun 15
Summary
25 nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2035 would give China capacity for sustained strike operations against Australian targets, up from an estimated nine today, a new Lowy Institute paper says.
More than 1,000 intermediate-range ballistic missiles by 2035, plus a growing surface fleet and a possible Pacific base, would sharply widen Beijing’s ability to hit northern Australia and move assets closer.
The DF-26 is now China’s only conventional missile able to reach Australia without a launch platform, and only if fired from South China Sea outposts; the report says the PLARF remains the main long-range threat.
Australia is due to receive its second Virginia-class submarine by 2035 under AUKUS, but the authors say defence planning must focus on capability rather than intent because a wider regional war or coercive campaign could still bring strikes.