Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 12
Bank of England Seen Holding Rate at 3.75% as 40% of Economists Flag Hike Risk
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 12

Bank of England Seen Holding Rate at 3.75% as 40% of Economists Flag Hike Risk

3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 12

Summary

  • All 65 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Bank of England to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on June 18, with the median forecast showing no move through end-2026.
  • Nearly 40% of respondents still see at least one rate hike later this year, while only six expect a 25-basis-point cut, as the Iran war lifts energy costs and broadens price pressures.
  • Inflation is forecast to peak at 3.6% late this year, average 3.3% in 2026 and ease to 2.6% in 2027, keeping it above the BoE's 2% target for an extended period.
  • Growth forecasts were nudged up despite the inflation risk: economists now see Britain expanding 1.0% in 2026, up from 0.8% in May, even after April GDP contracted 0.1%.

Insights

With a new peace deal, why do many economists still expect a UK interest rate hike before year's end?
As foreign wars dictate UK inflation, is the Bank of England's 2% target becoming an impossible goal?
The Iran war may be ending, but could a summer oil surge still push the UK economy into recession?