Big Four Banks See RBA Holding Rates at 4.35% as 2027-2028 Path Splits
Updated
Updated · Nine · Jun 14
Big Four Banks See RBA Holding Rates at 4.35% as 2027-2028 Path Splits
3 articles · Updated · Nine · Jun 14
Summary
All four major banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at this week’s board meeting, which would mark the first pause of 2026.
The expected hold follows three straight rate hikes and reflects an RBA still focused on inflation, with elevated global tensions reinforcing a wait-and-see stance.
ANZ has shifted most sharply, now forecasting two 0.25-point cuts in 2027 to take the cash rate to 3.85%, after previously expecting a prolonged hold.
Westpac still sees more tightening first, predicting 0.25-point hikes in August and September before any cuts in 2028; an August increase would add about A$92 a month on a A$600,000, 25-year mortgage.
The split underscores how uncertain Australia’s rate outlook remains, with inflation still above the RBA’s target band and borrowers warned to keep preparing for further increases.