Nickel Exchange Stocks Hit 468,600 Tons, Largest Overhang Since 2015
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 10
Nickel Exchange Stocks Hit 468,600 Tons, Largest Overhang Since 2015
1 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 10
Summary
468,600 metric tons of nickel now sit in LME and ShFE warehouses—about six weeks of global use—signaling that any market rebalancing after four years of oversupply will be slow.
LME inventories have eased by about 20,000 tons from a March peak near 400,000, but ShFE stocks have almost doubled this year to 87,671 tons, showing surplus metal shifting toward China.
Western supply has taken hits from Madagascar's suspended Ambatovy mine and uncertainty at Sherritt's Fort Saskatchewan refinery, yet those disruptions have not tightened the refined market enough to absorb excess metal.
China's role has grown more important: refined nickel imports jumped 56% year-on-year to 94,000 tons in January-April, while analysts say government stockpilers may have absorbed around 150,000 tons last year.
Even if Indonesian output slows because of mining limits and processing constraints, the refined nickel glut is still large enough to keep prices and recovery hopes under pressure.
With China stockpiling and Indonesian output high, how soon could the global nickel surplus actually flip to a shortage—and who will control the market then?
Will Western efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains be enough to counter China’s dominance, or are new disruptions on the horizon?